In one of the first signals of alarming rate of climate change impact is predicted for the Gujarat state, specially areas around Gulf of Kachchh (IPCC, 2001). In one of our analysis it is been estimated that 'coastal districts of the state ...Surat and Valsad district is most vulnerable given the length of coast and population density. In the Saurashtra region, Jamnagar and Junagadh (inclusive of Porbandar) district can be most vulnerable to the sea water changes.
This vulnerability is further going to increase in next 100 year given population rise from present 5.6 million (2006) to 5.9 Million (2011), 6.6 Million (2021), 10.0 Million (2041), 17.8 Million (2061) and 36 Million (2091). In the coastal districts population would be 3.8 Million (2021), 9.6 (2061) and 19.3 Million (2091) persons. Increased urbanization and industrialization along the coasts especially in Valsad, Surat, Bhavnagar, Junagadh and Jamnagar makes them vulnerable to sea water rise. The resultant urbanization and economic activities along the coast would also have negative impact on the coastal ecosystem and surface water channels. More analysis at micro level is required in order to have location specific mitigation plan for the upcoming natural disasters.' (Green Eminent, 2010).
The map (CESIN, 2007) showing population density distribution in district of Gujarat with elevation level less then 10 meters and above presents disturbing scenario of high density of population along Gujarat coast. It reveals the impending danger posed by the state of Gujarat wiping out key economic and port centres of the state. Beyond actual inundation, rising sea levels will also put millions of people at greater risk of flooding. The upcoming environmental disaster has potential to displace a large number of people and result in large scale migration of people to urban areas.
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