Government of India: Post Budget Agenda

Riding on the media bandwagon the Union Finance minister presented budget on 28th Feb 2015 admist lot of hope as change maker. While increasing the scope for the insurance cover to the poor, there is chance to include poor in monitized economy. Whether the claim is granted and reclaimed by the poor as regards to insurance? Only time would tell the benefits it would do to the poor. Thats apart the budget curtail the spending on the social sector, including Panchayati raj, education, health, water resources has been reduced. As mentioned by one analyst as under;

"Many of the social sectors have experienced huge cut in allocation. The allocation for women and child development has been reduced by staggering 44 per cent, the reduction for school education and literacy has been facing a reduction of closer to 10 per cent. The allocation for environment and forest has been slashed by almost 5 per cent and for water resources the allocation was reduced by 29 per cent. Allocation on Mid-day meal scheme has been reduced by almost 22 per cent. Allocation for JnNURM has been reduced from Rs. 6, 2167 crore to Rs. 240 crore and the money would be transferred to the creation of 100 smart cities across the country. In the name of giving fiscal autonomy to the states, 12 schemes earlier funded by central government have been winded up and left to the states to use their additional resources. As a result, backward region grants fund, tourist infrastructure development scheme, model school at block level, part of agricultural development has to be taken care of by the state governments."

For detail :https://expldev.wordpress.com/2015/03/01/union-budget-2015-16-hopes-and-apprehensions-anjan-chakrabarti/

What can be expected from the government who has done wonders to facilitate the corporate by providing for the tax breaks, have been planning to disinvest from the public enterprise, facilitate new business  etc has been lack lustors in promoting the agricultural growth. With lots of hope on the 'niti ' ayog, this has been non starter with Rs.20000 crore seed capital alloted. The state are now left with the recommendations of the finance commissions for their share of central revenue. Most of the state are now made to look for their own resources. Right approach but state needs to be trained, monitored and supported for the planning excercise. The largest share of revenue from the centre now goes to the defence sector with over Rs.2.5 lakh crore expenditure allocation. 

With the objective of bringing the labour from the agriculture to the services sector the focus retains on the skill development. What skills? mainly to serve the service sector, which has seen the rise of service tax from 12 to 14 percent directly, and with addition proposed cess of 2 percent its going to rise above 16 percent. This can harmful for the growth of service sector it self. More or less it would effect the tourism, hotel and restaurant business in big way. The middle class households are largely effected, not only in urban India but also in rural. The development scenario would never receive investments as expected due to poor rise in income of households. There is poor chance of saving the money, thus where is scope for the investment in infrastructure or govt schemes. 

The arm twisting of the middle class has been opposite to the 'achhe din' slogan by the Modi Sarkar, promised on the eve of election. The net benefit to the poor would be lesser if the investment in rural infrastructure is declining, and the employment scope is declined due to poor service sector growth. The decline in crude prices have not helped the customers but it has helped the government and corporate to save the addition revenue and foreign exchange. The additional levies and taxes would burden on the common men and rich alike since many of them who consume these raw material would be hard hit by increasing price rise. 

The global competitiveness would decline since the delay in the major projects like Dholera SIR, GIFT city and DFC would take toll on the corporate expectation. Even with rise in government investment the projects on the ground are moving at slow pace. The first of the projects mentioned might be expected to finish by 2017-18, if the projects do not get the investors who are really interested in starting projects there is likely chance to even foresee employment generated on the ground. 

Though the governments abstain itself from being populist it attracted the attention of the market and corporate since it facilitated them for the want of investment and employment. As per the experience of Gujarat goes hardly 30 to 40 percent being realized even after facilitating the corporate in most of the manufacturing sectors. 

Corporate to cooperate with Governments to meet Development Targets?

Recently the Vibrant Gujarat 2015, concluded in Gandhinagar and host of CEO and top management of corporate world descended to support the agenda of Mr. Modi, as PM of India. The event hosted by Gujarat Government saw a mix of Modi and current CM Mrs. Patel. A careful integration of Global, national and regional development hopes were laid with most of the government departments pursued the corporate world to invest in their activities. The responsibilities of the government is now extended to the CEOs to help them in making infrastructure ready for massive investment in later stages. Of course promises made in most of the sectors as usual by national investors worth lakhs of crores, figures ranging from 2 lakh to 20 lakh crores. Wide investment in the state economies shows the advancement made by the state in pursuing the corporate s. Though the direct benefits are yet to be seen in the perspective of people since hardly quarter of the investments promised in earlier events has been materialized.

The investors were keen to be partner with the departments and state officials were quick enough to take promises of the investments. No body knows the serious viability and realization capacity of these deals. But the image of the state shows improvement in eyes of investors. The foreign delegates were happy but tizzy about actual realization. With slow world economy the monies required for the investment is hard to come by in the near future. The promised land of 'Smart' cities in Dholera and GIFT city could not see much more energy from investors. The land deals half completed in some cases are hard to realize due to slow growth in the international and national economies.

The bullish national approach to the economy is due to commitment of the ruling party are centre and state. The harsh development reality with the newly formed NITI Ayog (in lieu of planning commission) must face to keep the corporate and finance department happy. The task of winning the hearts of million citizens comes from showcase of implementing the schemes. The half baked approach of the ideas in Land Acquisition, Safai and development planning little serious change in government thinking. The facilitation of the investors is great and so was the promises, when we are going to see the real investors from distant land is hard to get. The stake of traditional partners like Japan, US, Australia over the Denmark, Finland, UK, South Africa is high due to long term commitments, but very cautious in approaching the Indian market. The system is ready to welcome them but lacks the down right commitment towards its own people.

India being the world market cannot expect export to the world till we find market for ourselves. We may not find export improving unless the corporate giants enter India on their own term to exploit the resources. After all they must promise profits for their investors. Keen to raise the human resources India still aspires to become largest 'Coolie' supplying nation to serve the multi national corporate. Despite trying to raise the bar for improving innovation and competitiveness India as a nation made to believe all we can do is to supply human labour in addition to get exploited of our resources. The pain to deal with the corporate is to facilitate them with land, capital and labour and allow them to take profits. When Indian systems would get benefited to invest further in social sector depends still on the tax paid by the resident citizens.

The PPP model adopted to give the infrastructure projects to corporate also enlists the possibilities of linking a system of paying tax money to corporate funds. The pity Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) unless sees light of day there is little chance of return on the social investment government would make in future. The viability of the policy framework depends on the markets, when the planned economies is rejected by the new governments. The new directions adopted provides little scope of the focus to investments in backward areas unless supports the investment by the corporate. The state governments must be ready to provide for the land, power and labour to the corporate guests in order to seek handful employment to its citizens.

The quick clearances of the projects, and easily twisted approach to resource management would evolve the exploitation more planned to extract the resources at minimum price and maximum benefits to the investors. The citizens must pay for the cost incurred to the governments which than can be shared with the corporate entity with the sound hope to have return on the investments. Not all remains hopeless in the dawn of new market and investment led government philosophy, with 'Make in India' campaign and realization of the social dreams. The easy arrangement with the World Banks (WB) for the loans which cities would need would further tangle and pledge the future Indian institutional capital to the corporate.

The images of the earlier, 'Bombay Plan' when eager investors lined up to partner with governments, though government decided to go public by setting large public sector undertaking. This time the governments is making large enterprise which is owned by the public to partner with corporate to justify the development targets. Corporate must participate with the governments to meet the development targets. Like most of the funds in social sector must now be routed through the expert corporate entity, the operations and management of the enterprise must also facilitate the improvement in the delivery and quality targets.

The nation must be sleeping is they do not react into the corporate take over of the public systems citing lack of public funds and their inability to manage. The market based economy needs to be most regulated and guided than the socialist economies. The wheel may turn back since the motive of profits must not be for the public benefits, and entirely least cost. The community till than must be diligent customers and good employee in order to allow the corporate to function and cooperate with the government to meet the development targets.  

Urban Development: India 5000 v/s 100 cities

The government of India with new leader in place looks for creating 100 cities down the line for the sake of investment. The projected growth of population for the urban India stands 500 million plus in next decade. The existing 5000 plus large, medium and small towns are vying for the investment. Except 68 JnNURM cities and 140 medium size town the country did not see much of investment in rest of the towns and cities. The current population of urban India has more than 70 percent population residing in little more than 150 one lac plus towns. These towns except the metropolitan cities have very shabby infrastructure and poor connectivity. There is lack of housing, infrastructure and transportation the key drivers for the city growth. The million plus cities are readied with metro, mass transit and expanded housing sector for the population, but the reality market has not picked up since most of the expected consumers in the cities vanished during last 5 years. The empty housing stock (mostly priced high) remains the concerns for the developers who are further looking to offer the houses to the needy at reasonable prices.

The thought for the new cities might have been emerged from the multi-national investors who may not be looking for the existing cities for the key investment in infrastructure but may offer investment in new destinations. These new areas are triggered by the industrial investments, express highways and rail/road corridors. The proposed 100 towns are expected to emerge from the thin air without any serious recommendation from the Urban Development ministry itself. The government so much guided by the industrial lobby (not known) that they have given go ahead with allocation of funds for looking at it. The existing towns though trying hard to improve did not find much support from the state governments often look for the central push for the reform (which did not come during first phase of renewal mission). The small and medium where the industrial have been trying to investment owing to its proximity to large urban centres needs serious look for the infrastructure investment often face poor treatment from the decision makers.

The oversized Delhi, Mumbai , Kolkata, Chennai and other select class I towns gets more funds since it remains the power centre in most of the states. Let it be but there is need to invest in second rug towns instead for looking at fresh 100 towns. Who is going to populate the towns, why do we need this approach and why neglect the existing town? etc would be questions asked. Even after six decades we still need a well guided urban policies, the lights emerging from the urban areas of China has been source of inspiration from many of our policy makers but they seldom see the neglect of hinterland and controlled population. The country needs a serious look on its approach at the cities.

The political differences, industrial investments and lobbying by the industrial houses have directed the recent policy shift towards the 100 new towns but we have to set the methodology to improve the delivery of services.  

Development Plan: Realtors and politicians guiding the cities

Long time ago there was agenda for the public participation in the preparation of the development plans for the cities. The town planners instead of preparing the table plans were instructed to take the inputs from the people and stake holders to prepare the development plans. It cannot be just the coloured land use plan, but it was supposed to take the inputs regarding the vision of people and stakeholders, aspirations of youth and urban middle class. Providing amenities, green spaces, transportation facilities etc, were the intentions the town plans were prepared. Recently the very agenda of the people and governments are hijacked by the Realtor's and politicians by making changes suitable to their own agenda's. The plans are made in hurry with cosy involvement of the consultants, government planners and babus sitting in state secratraits. The plans so prepared are now carefully looked for protecting the interests of the politicians and their real estate friends. The cities are now catering to upcoming market areas and investment destinations as desired by the construction industry, the people and their aspirations are not being focus of the development plans.

The land parcels whether its in hand of the government or the builders are taken care in the new development plans. The high stake in the land markets often drive the investors in careful control of the development plans. The make or break story of the development plans are often now tied up with the stake of the high and mighty. The fianancial stake of political parties in addressing the needs of the builders and contractors are eating into the development funds. Large investment is not for the improvement of the existing living environment or redevelopment of the deliapilated areas but to fund the upcoming market areas suitable for the realtor's. The quick fix lies into the addressing the needs of the land market forgetting the huge gap in urban infrastructure.

The urban infrastructure which are required in the towns and cities across the countries are often neglected on the one hand and huge investment are made in fly overs, river fronts, roads which services the new areas. The city needs more focus on the people who live in poor conditions, the few urban projects which high lights vision of the present population.

When Development is tagged to political parties...

Its good that development as a topic of discussion  takes a central stage in political discourses. But the most important thing which can be noted that the governments in its nomenclature is also termed out to be X parties government. When in democracy we adopted by naming a central and state govt. by parties. The political parties have a limited role to play in decision making exercise, which are supposed to be outcome of extensive research on the policy research, its impact and monitoring. 'Development' which till recently world over is thought about a serious exercise which does not mean going by party line (which often is not an outcome of well researched agenda) but by analysis of the data given through national or state level surveys. During the discourse we are into the position of easily projecting an development ideologies which stands on the political ideology and of course which totally differs from the theoretical bases. The schemes which can be objectively targeted at the development needs of the people emerges to be treating to the political needs of the parties.

The good research output suggestive of a policy which might be emerging from the burning of night oil by the numerous support staff (you may call them researches) often turning to be night mare to convince the political bosses. How on earth development issues can be limited to political parties without institutional backup. Are parties suppose to run a parallel institutional network? Or the institutions also become politicised to give feed accordingly to the political class. The individuals in the recent political arena tries to make the policies based on the their believes which in most of the cases are poorly analysed by themselves. The polarisation of the parties in the national issues is also resulting in the policy polarisaiton on the party lines. To some extent these are good to understand the good and bad outcome expected of the decisions taken by a political leaders. But do we essentially mean to say that the system is not in place to find the problems, discuss with people for verification and solutions. Development to wide spectrum of people means illusion created by the political masters. The populism of the policy depends more on the freebies which in long run may not be fruitful.

There is little doubt about the political parties in asserting their wish to the policy makers, when they themselves become the policy makers by not just discussing it among themselves also creating a no question mode for the people, the problem of acceptance arises. The serious development analysis in these scenarios take a back seat. The state governments now if seen from the political perspectives may stand in front of central governments in accepting the major political decisions or even rediculing the central decisions. Same in the case of the grass root democratic setup a situation of distress arises when the basic policy intentions and guidelines are violated. We are in a situation when more we look into the problems we try to find the quick answers which are of course short lived. Certain conflict in the policy approach or infighting between the political class has seen as loss of good opportunity in sharing the best of all. 

Low Unemployment and Heavy Investment Strategy for Gujarat?

The latest reports of Ministry of Labour Government of India, projects Gujarat as least unemployment in country. This is also contrast to high investment opportunity being offered in the state. How sustainable would be investment in absence of labour shortage. Given the huge investment promises and related land utilization or intention to use 1000 ha of land for the projects in leiu of the employment where are the labour. There is feeling in the state that too much capital flow in absence of manpower, can spell disaster for the state. Given the migration flows, even declining from across the states in country, a huge rural-urban population shift has happened since 1991 till 2011 where is scope for further demographic adjustment in next decade. A urbanisation fueled by investment in infrastructure courtsey the JnNURM and UIDSSMT scheme the migration to cities from the rural hinterland has been rising high. Moreover there is talk of setting up the Special Investment Regions (12-13) in the state to serve the special economic zones and also to act as independent cities, where are the people? The government is invested a bit high on the much talked Dholera SIR, but prospects for the 'peopling' i.e., shifting of the people to these destinations seems to be weak. What than is the task ahead for the Government and industry investors given the shortage of labour as predicted by many? The over reliance on the external migratory tendency would be misjudged as too ambitious given the development projects, and investment happening in rapid pace in neighbouring Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Gujarat needs to look some where else to source labourer or the industry needs to be prepared for the high labour costs.

A big change in the income levels due to rise in investments and surplus for disposal in the developed districts of the state is indicator for the line of actions government should be ahering before its too late. Gujarat remains now less attractive given its falliability to eminent crisis in future. It would be interesting to revive the argument in the upcoming Vibrant Gujarat.

State Vs State Politics of Bandh

The bandh called by opposition parties in India has now active support of the state governments, the states ruled by the opposition parties irrespective of the nature of call, are glued to party ideologies rather than responsible state governments. The state v/s state in the fight between centre and state parties led to division of polity and marred with illusion of the governments across the country. How can state government support a bandh called to opposed a central government decision? How does the tier of the government functions? Is democracy is responsible for these incidents. Whether you are in support of the price rise or against if you happen to live in the opposition ruled state the chances of you doing normal business during 'bandh' call is null. There is no opposition to such an directives in the state, the system in the states like West Bengal, Orissa, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu etc would support such bandh. Does this mean we are still living in draconian era of British raj? The polity of nation, with such a polarization has gone too far in addressing the needs of 'common men'. The losses suffered by the state would be much larger than the profits to be earned by the petroleum companies. The taxes (VAT) levied by state itself on the petroleum products show no respite in bringing down, thus making this support to nationwide strike an hoax.

What more you can ask from the central government, despite the deregulation on the pricing of the petroleum, the politics of the nation since 1970s revolves around controlling it. The magnitude of the problem is not the price rise per se, but the manner in which it was bending to the demands of the marketing companies. The international performance of the Rupee against the dollar might also trigger the reduction in the profits of the oil companies in long run. There is no doubt on the concerns of the opposition parties, but this is time to rethink on the policy of state support to such bandh.Whether we like it or not these strike once supported by the opposition ruled states shows the extreme polarisation and real loss of communication between the centre and states. The idea of using non-conventional energy sources for the majority of the activities needs to be promoted and also the reduction in consumption of fuel needs to be encouraged.

The politics over the petroleum products would take undue turn in case there is real crisis in terms of balance of payments, governments would be in fix in order to bring regulation in the market. The large share of oil imports would become negative to the political climate in country with more control on the products such crisis as of today i.e. 31 may 2012 can not be ruled out. Tomorrow what happens when centre deregulates the pricing of petroleum products, the politics of nation would be less spicy. What to say, can we afford the state vs state fight in infringe on the governance system where centre and state has to support each other on the key policy matters. Let the political parties debate on the rise but calling or supporting the bandhs by the states should be regarded as unconstitutional!!

Development erodes your past...

As it is true for the community development programs, the image make over of the CM Modi in Gujarat had been immense. For the worse nightmares of 2002 to the giagentic development projections of 2012, the state has moved ahead to bulldoze any defamation sought after the Godhra and its aftermath. Despite the thousands of rims have been written accusing the CM, he has staged a clear win over his rivals. Many may not like it this way, but not many would also like to punish the CM who has benefitted the citizens of state he is being cherished as Gujarat no Sher. There are people who with real passion for the secularism have backtracked given the frontal attack by the RSS, BJP and other friends. The ideologies produced for the political gain have succeded in polarisation of the societies and now the state against the centre. The notion of state verses central if it limited to political lobies its okay but it has traversed its path towards the general public, hoardings and banners have come out in support or opposing the claims by the centre and state. Who has the authority on the state is clear Round -I Mr. CM has won over the centre's so called the weak PM. The personal attack has become talk of the political circles if you do not like my thought just go out and bark somewhere else.

Nothing happens so as to unplease Mr. Modi, he feared and respected as Uncle SAM, the streets are well praising the Namos success, the past has given to the ghost to talk about till the table is turned. Not for sure in next election.

Hail the ruler.. Hail the Namo Kings Amen!!

The dance of capital in Globalised world continues..

The billionare lists prepared with much funfare world over, has made true joke of the present economic crisis in the US and Eurozone. The capitalists continue to maximise their wealth not loosing sleep over the present crisis. The recent news about Hindujas Manson in UK and million dollar, CEOs and professionals salaries in top companys would make the rest of world and country envy about their position. Its given same explaination that these neo-rich work harder to have earn their rights to encash their labour, the maximum of ownership even in this era of public companies not being corrected. The capturing of the wall street in US by commoners is representation of the growing antithesis about the march of capital. But these efforts in the US can not be equalled to what is happening in Egypt or Libya. At least they had targetted the persons who not only cornered the money but has dominated their life ever. The new capitalists also dominates but through its art and science of capturing the market, this would often create and positive sense. People in general are not averse to these, only they become jealeous for the targets capital which they themselves would not be able to acheive.

India, has also thrown the billionare club and more so is joining, some by their right while they own (??) a large public enterprise and some by their might. Among such is the liquor barronm Mr. Mallaya refuses to be mowed down by present aviation crisis, would bend the governments to facilitate his exit from the situation. It is clear that they have mismanaged their economic interests in businesses, would now force the government of India to garner more funds from the across the world, thus inviting the MNC to take over. Why such bending of rules or facilitating them is evident, ya we all know they run the government in proxy.

Capital has helped the political Class. They have printed hoardings, put politicians on charted flights to world trip, played in casinos to encash their fortunes, helped most of them to open Swiss Bank account. Why would then they keep silence on the any wrong doing by fleecing the consumers, land owners, financial institutions and governments at local level. They do not see existance of city government, only interact with the PMs and head of state. Their art of negotiation with the government is immense, as if they belong to different breed and have special citizenship status in country.

A normal citizen would have end number of difficulties in getting into the government headquarters whereas these neo-capitalists would sit in their offices, car and residences just because they belong to their place. Rest do not matter.

Nurturing Growth through innovation

Innovation has lost its face in upcoming globalization, due its efficacy in converting the idea to identifiable products. The imperfaction in the market machanism does not allow the innovator to turn their ideas into profitable business. Often the big businesses turn to innovators to germinate and take advantage of such ideas. The increase in the design competitiveness shows uneasy practices, lacking support to the budding enterpreneurs who are from the Small and Medium industries and onslought of the big leaders. Often the external markets does not reponse to such innovation unless the product itself is taken with mega investment and convert the small idea into big within very small time.

The capital intensive investment and lack of confidence of the financial institution on the innovators is due to declining risk taking abilities of such institutions and organisations. The established businesses and ideas take priority over the new and innovative ideas. Yet people like late steve Jobs could measmerise give the size of capital owned by him and Microsoft leveraging on the ideas or just buying the young companies killing and taking over the innovation at the initial stages.

Such a march of capital in the countries like India and its developed states like Gujarat should be taken as warning to the small and medium enterprises, struggling to innovate or simply following the large enterprises for thier business channel. Its always risky given the share and command of these large industries over the segments, like auto giants would risk and poorly compensate their illfated decisions to their channel supplier mostly SMEs and innovators vying for eye of mega industries. Such a situation and associated risks are never transfered to mega industries as SMEs would have desired, thus killing any desire to think new and big.

The creation of entry barrier now by state in assisting the mega industries, kills the nurturing process of SMEs instead they become scape goat in the globalised economies. The watch dog regulatory bodies would take little action to manage the affairs.

Admissions Open for Masters in Urban Planning

Bhaikaka Centre for Human Settlement, APIED,

Sardar Patel University (V.V. Nagar) ANAND

Masters in Urban Planning

(Recognized by Institute of Town Planners India, ITPI, New Delhi)

Applications Invited from eligible candidates for the Masters in Urban Planning (MUP) full time course. Following are the details;

Course Duration : two years (Four Semister)

Eligibility: B.Arch/B.E.(Civil)/MA/MSC in Economics/Sociology/Geography or other equivalant degree specified in admission brouchure.

Tentative Admission Schedule: Application Acceptence: Last week July/Admission - 1st Week Aug.

For More information call

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Course Coordinator (MUP)

09898353419

www.apied.edu.in

Leaving Agriculture for Industrial Development:Raw Deal

Most center to the argument about shifting of population from agrarian base to non agricultural base since the carrying capacity has declined to support large population. Many tend to believe that with industrialization jobs would open up but what a class, it would be mostly jobs of doorkeepers, odd-job-boys, maids, mason-helpers, etc will be available! Some one may add another job: that of a Hawker. From a peasant or agricultural laborer (though poor, no doubt) becoming a maid / servant / gatekeeper / hawker / rickshaw-puller…etc ... a ‘development’ indeed!

Some ‘lucky’ ones may become some makeshift Tea cum snacks stall owners or betel-leaves–cigarettes–chewing-tobacco stall/'galla' owners on the pavements, always in a precarious existence – any time the ‘Cleansing cum Beautification’ drive of the govt can bulldoze them out, and they’ll have to rebuild their shanty stalls again.

In the name of industrialization we may have taken lot of land but the promise of the job still eludes many, most of the land owners are forced to leave their ancestral occupation to the serve the urban middle class. The states also now train such poorly educated people for the service of neo-rich society by conducting training programs. From the independent human being, the land owners were turned to dependent community on the industrial economy, however remains uncertain.

Educated sons and daughters of the so-called ‘middle’ / ‘upper-middle class’ people are upbeat and vying for those few thousands of good-paid jobs that may come up in the Special Economic Zones or Special Investment Regions. The management level jobs in the industries and mainly in the ‘service’ sectors serving the well-to-dos. The media, businessmen, and the likes are full of glee. And they will have plenty of ways to earn more money and plenty of things to do with their lots of money. But all of them together constitute only 12-25% of the population, at maximum 30%.

The enrichment of the selected community group or class in states or country for the development is not the development of rest in the society. For the remainder, those fellows at power have that old rotten rusted “Trickling Down” theory. Yes, some thousands among tens of millions of unemployed youth will get the rest of the lower end jobs. Some will get consolation of doing own “ business ” "dhandho" thats paltry Rs 1500 – 4000 per month. But the problem of unemployment will not even fractionally be solved. The people disposed by development will become paupers in their own land.

Turning Golden Goose: Gujarat's next 50 years

With the thundering voice of state leaders, the Gujarat has just passed a landmark in its history, economically the giant in making the state looks forward. The huge investment promises if made to see light of day would turn Gujarat into formidable state with who's who of corporate leaders jumping the bandwagon to share the corners offered by state. Economic progress cannot be denied to state and people have right to prosper. But given the approach adopted the fallout seems to be plenty. Lets list out some of them;

(a) State turning into environmental hot spot in generating huge carbon foot print, damaging its ecosystem and coastal regions beyond repair.

(b) The assumption of climate change impacting the coastal and high populated regions needs fast mitigation measure, else the investment would cause serious business loss in next 50 years. The settlements along the coast needs to be careful about such eminent dangers.

(c) The land transfers to the corporates would cause general shift in state's occupation pattern and how much of the working population 1.9 crores can be absorbed in the secondary and tertiary sector. This is given the encouragement capital based industries and almost little horizontal linkages would leave most of work force in informal sector.

(d) The shortage of agricultural land and utilization of much needed irrigation water for the urban areas and industries might lead to water crisis given the vagaries of nature in Gujarat. The man made drought in such situation would be catastrophic to the states development.

(e) The demongraphic changes induced by large scale investment would be due to migration of technical and service staff from other parts of country, since the quality of manpower required is simply in shortfall. The labour crisis in long run might cause a serious business loss to the investors, unless the other states support the state's development. The partnership between the states like Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan etc is required to leverage each others advantage.

(f) The inequality of development efforts in backward taluka and districts would cause serious social and political concerns may be important road block to economic growth given poor Human Development Index.

(g) The continued discontent between centre and state may turnout to be long drawn fight for the state to claim its rightful share, ultimately loss of investments by FII or large investors without support of national government. Somewhere, politicians have to live above party line.

(h) The nature of political leadership might also be cause of concern for the civil rights group turning against the state on the issue of justice, communal concerns and egalitarian rights of people. This might cause embarrassment to leadership and ultimate repression by the state forces.

At the right time, the Gujarat might turn out to be 'golden goose' to be shot at before it stops filling the national exchequer. Concerns of the people and politics of the day would hardly allow the state to fly away to its destiny given the national demands of investments.

Growth v/s Development

Near obsession with the Economic Growth, the state has keen on pursuing the agenda and has forgotten the debates on the Human Development and Sustainable development. Growth would take care of Employment, Education and Health of citizens, thats the mantra we had been pursuing till the recent plan periods. Country has witnessed increasing dissatisfaction in the associated parameters which is related to development. Our annual ritual of the budget does not mention the development goals the world bodies have set out, and we being signatory of it continue to provide lip service.

One recent deliberations on the GDP verses Employment at a national seminar, speakers mostly agreed the lack of relationship between the two, since there is little hope for the organised sector to provide employment, the GDP growth to which they contributes remains non-distributive. Even though the rich demographic dividend which country enjoys by having larger share of youth, would fizzle away if proper actions are not taken. Planning for the given targets and centralization of the growth is leading to backlog on many fronts, we are not doing enough for the youth, women and children. More so, the dance of capital by the way of massive land acquisition has affected the informal economies (which provides employment to 94 percent of work force).

What happens at the state and district levels in development? This has remained elusive in absence of any field data, the information shared by the agencies are hardly verifiable in the actual context. The race for claiming the best acheivements is increasing and districts have been improving their social database rather, playing with data to get positive funding. The failure of programs or otherwise the machanisms have never been detterent in getting sweeping change. The business as usual attitude of planning agencies, force the people to question the validity of the state and in many respect might emerge as distinct social and political agenda for the future.

The distribution of wealth (if at it happens) remains a token sustainance by the state to the people by the way of providing employment guarentees for a limited period. This would never been possible for the urban areas, and thus discontent and corruption prevails in attainment of the social goals of individuals.

Regional backlogs and growth measurements are still not done in many parts of the country and way forward seems to be distributing cash to the hand of people, increasing the doles further in countryside. What makes governments to bypass the constitutional obligation? The right to life and dignity is compromised by system seems to be incapable in dealing with issues.

Water v industry: where is the question? (by Sunita Narain)

Some hundred people, men and women, were gathered on the hill. Many more, I could see, were trudging up. Their faces were resolute. I asked why they were opposing the cement plant. Their answer was simple: “We cannot eat cement.” “But the plant will bring you employment and prosperity,” I said. The reply this time, with a touchof irritation, was: “We have our fields and now with the water in the tank we have good produce. We are not rich like you but we have food to eat.” I persisted, “But your land is not being taken away to build the plant. The government says it has only allocated village grazingland and wasteland to build the factory.” Their anger spilled out.

“Can you see the water in front of you?” I looked at the vast body of

water stretching as far as the eye could see. “This Samadhiyala bhandara (reservoir) was built a few years ago by the government. It changed our lives as our fields, which gave us one crop, now give us two, even three. Now government has given this water body to the factory.We will not allow this.” Soon cries filled the air: “We will give up our lives but this factory cannot be built.”

>From the hill, I could see the factory foundations being laid. It was in the middle of the lake, its boundary walls stretching into the water. How could this happen?

The 1.91-million-tonne-per annum cement factory with coke over and captive power plants, being built by detergent major Nirma, is in Bhavnagar district of Gujarat. The land allocated to the factory by the state government is categorised as grazing and wasteland in revenue records. It is for this reason, when the Gujarat High Court was hearing the petition of the farmers, government argued that since the land was not listed as a water body it had the right to allocate it to industry. No protection was needed because technically there was no water body on this land.

Why? Some 10 years ago, this region at the edge of the Arabian Sea was in trouble; agriculture was in distress and farmers impoverished. Each year as farmers drilled into the ground for water the seawater would enter the water below the land. Soon wells turned saline. Crops withered and even the size of coconut shrunk. The then state government came up with a big idea. Why not embank the rivers that bring freshwater into the sea, creating reservoirs, which would check advance of salinity and also provide irrigation for crops.

In 1999, the district collector of Bhavnagar allotted the land classified as grazing and wasteland to the executive engineer of the salinity control division of the district to build the Samadhiyala bandhara on the Shensuri river. In 2000, the earthen dam of 1,630 metres was built. It submerged 319 hectares (ha). A reservoir was built but its land use in government records was not changed.

The reservoir changed lives. After it three more such water bodies—Kalsar, Nikol and Malan—have been built. The water stretches some 40 km along the coast, providing a barrier between the land and the sea.

The structures are so important to people that they have invested personal funds in their repair and strengthening. Earlier this year people paid voluntarily to lay a pipeline over a kilometre to connect the water bodies so that the overflow of one lake can be channelised to another. They protect the catchment and have also built check dams
on streams that bring water to the reservoir. The result is for all to see. During my visit in mid- December, well after the monsoons, the reservoir was brimming. Now battle lines have been drawn to protect this source.

First the state government and industry denied the very presence of the water body. The environmental impact assessment, used to grant clearance to the project, says the plant is on barren land. It does not mention the rivers that surround the site, bringing water to the reservoir. It does not even acknowledge the check dams, which the
company has vandalised.

Later, when the truth of the water body was established using satellite imagery, the push was to find a compromise solution. In the High Court the farmers were told their water body would remain but only if they agreed to a partition—some 100 ha of the lake would be returned for irrigation. But they would have to agree to give away the rest, where the factory would be built.

Now farmers are running from pillar to post, explaining that a water body is a structure with a head in its catchment and body in the water. It will die if it is taken apart. Farmers also say the cement factory will get its raw material of limestone from the catchment of the same water bodies. Nobody asked for an impact assessment of this mining when giving permission to the factory.

Who will listen to their call? Will we allow the desecration of water and the life it gives? Will we allow the right to a common water body to be abused? This is a fight for life. Be clear.

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Surat: Textile Labour Unrest

Unfortunately the economic capital of Gujarat is under the pressure from the labourers who have been on strike since last four days and textile industries suffering serious loss of business and production. The textile labourers have been under constant work pressure of over 12 hours a day and in shifts living under the unhygienic conditions have helped industry to grow. Over the years the cost of living in the cities like Surat has increased and thus the demand for the just pay rise is justified. The raw material crisis in synthetic textile sector due to monopolistic supply chain as well as rise in crude oil is affecting the industry who have already put down the production due to high cost. The present labourer crises in much claimed labour friendly state presents a unlined situation affecting the lives and work relationships of massive industrial workforce. The industries and city administration has never acted seriously to make the life of these migrants easy, instead they have be made to work hard with less pay comparison to other sector workers.

Organised loom segments are let off by the state industrial labour officers in oversighting the difficulties faced by them in the city. Thus with poor work condition and subsistence pay the migrants would move away given better opportunities in their home state. The industrial labour crises is going to be at large more serious in the state given the massive investment in various sector. The labour shortage in the manufacturing sector and subsequent high cost of labour would also affect the growth prospects. Unless this important factor of production is taken care by introducing better socio-economic package by the collective efforts by the governments and industry association such friction would increase.

The issue of insurance, housing and health has never been tackled fully by the cities concerned for the textile workers and subsequent impact on the city economy is evident. Over million workers in the textile sector in Surat does require attention of the state and central government to ensure long term industrial health. Gujarat can not afford to have collapse of industries in Surat given poor revival of industries in Ahmadabad and Vadodara the next metropolitan city. The urban reform should also look into the economic characteristics and channelise the investment and action is winning the hearts of industrial labourers. The industrial investment would remain volatile or uncertain given the frequent labour unrest starting from Diamond to textile sector and their ancillaries.

Vibrant Gujarat: Looking Outward

Just concluded Vibrant Gujarat summit in Gandhinagar has created Gujarat centric image to outside world..at least reflected in the documents released on the MoU signed, Investment promised and employment destined to be generated. Great! to achieve a milestone in absence of the national support. One may wonder..when the state would acknowledge the support of the national government and vice versa. So much for the industrial investment that, state has pioneered itself in tagging 'Davos of India'. True to an extent till the internal competition rises amongst the states.

The 50 lakh jobs created in a state, when total about 170 crores working population, 100 crores in primary and tertiary sector, with less then 2 percent employment level would result in lack of human resources and skills to cater to such industrial investment. There is an effort to train the manpower to cater to the demand, but its falling short very fast. The manpower in key sector, like power, automobiles, Information technology etc is simply not available as per the requirements.

Now its upto the state and industry to transfer the vast pool of workforce from across the country and attract them in their newly established townships (to be constructed) in future. Whether this would lead to migration of work force? May be from the states where infrastructure is not available and has surplus man power. The costly labour intake in the industries might prove competitive of the state entrepreneurs in long run and thus idea of doing away with labour laws would also work.

We hope most of the claims seems to regular success rates of promises and simple routing the various investment through government channel (Vibrant Gujarat). What else do you think of partnerships which is as simple as internal investment on projects like housing colonies, urban infrastructure, irrigation projects, etc and even investment by MSME. These are regular investment where in government has only regulatory role to play. Government is party to any investment happening in the state, only this time its one page MoU (form) given to INDEXb to maintain the data. Good for marketing the state..smart move indeed.

New Year: Beating Drums and Tagging Corruption Index Spatially

Lets not forget to be optimistic for once in New year in the calender. If we all remember there was a system in earlier times to beat the drum in order to warn the public about the coming dangers in society by the erstwhile administrators. In this new year, we all start beating the drum, though virtually since no culprit can be found by the concerned agencies. Also look at the spatial reach of the corruption and associated indicators in India. Hopes are planted in the Judicial system to get justice for all...(only avenue left)

to murder of teenage girls in Delhi, going after CWG culprits in Delhi, catch the 2G gang in India (most of state licencors), Stop loot of Forest and Mineral Resources in Goa, Orissa, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, West Bengal and other state, Check loosing erosion of land due to massive industrialization in Goa, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra.

corrupt practices in PDS systems in India (all states), release political prisoners and human rights activists, stop chasing government bashers (Arundhati, Binayak Sen et. al), Check free distribution of goods by cheif ministers of state to all and sundry, check the BPL list again...again., check cash doles handed out to poor and others.

Corporates and associated departments (IT/ED/SEBI/CBDT/Others) for their doubtful associations in all the parts of country to loot the public money from all means. Check political and media bosses for their unholy alliances in country.

Public for their civic behavior, use of plastics, burning of public property, not following rule of law and not respecting all citizens of the country.

All cases above are spread either locally or the nationally. Some indicators for corrupt societies have been quite evident a very little would require serious research or investigation. Rate these in your regions or state of work. I know many of us would be able to map the intensity and spatial spread of corruption indicators.

Meanwhile Green Eminent would try to come up with some data in next few months so keep viewing the blog and pass on your spatial indicators in any form..to us. We would be happy to include in national ranking by the mid year.

Mundra: Complex of Environmental Violations

Many would envy the speed with which M/s Adani and Company kept the state growth figures flying during last few years. Its fascinating to find the corporate utilizing 13000 ha of land although acquired and purchased through help, aspire to become a local lord in Mundra. A sting of violations of environmental laws makes it hoarding violations; lets take some sample;

(A) a dredging disposal pipeline has been laid in the inter tidal area carrying the dredged material to the landward side of the port to reclaim the land area on the West and

North port side and which pipeline has been obstructing the tidal flow due to which the mangroves stretches on the western and northern port side have been seriously affected and at several places the mangroves have dried up; and

(B) the creeks systems and the natural flow of seawater is being obstructed by reclamations along the creeks, with destruction of mangroves being observed at several stretches; and

(C) M/s Mundra Port & SEZ Limited have developed an airport the sign board at the site indicating “airport”, which is located close to the shore and it is noted that the clearance letter from Civil Aviation Department dated 30th October, 2008 provided by M/s Mundra Port & SEZ Limited interalia refers to development of a Mundra aerodrome while development of a aerodrome/airport requires prior environmental clearance under the Environmental Impact Assessment Notification, 2006; and

(D) a township named as “Samundra Township”, which has been accorded clearance under the EIA Notification, 2006 by Gujarat SEIAA on 20th February, 2010, is observed to be located in the Coastal Regulation Zone area of the creek and no clearance under the Coastal Regulation Zone Notification, 1991 has been obtained therefor; and

(E) a hospital named as “Sterling” has been constructed in the Coastal Regulation Zone area of the same creek thereby requiring a clearance under the Coastal Regulation Zone Notification, 1991, which clearance has not been obtained;

These string of violations and more as noticed by the MoEF asks for explanation and alternate mechanism from the violating partners. What would happen in next four weeks...there would not be an inch of recovery of environmental status in concern areas. At the best the corporates with the help from the state government might pay a lip service or penalty and get away...This is when more then 1000 such industrial zones are going to be developed in country. How does EIA takes a easy route to facilitate the large development with a blink of eye to enforcement agencies?

Gujarat Limited: India Unlimited

Gujarat is leap frogging in the development statistics and doling a service to business community by Inviting them in herds. The guidance provided by the babus of state is incomparable to anyone in country. They are dot on the spot in facilitating the industrial production in the state, so much essential in India and state. Given the take what does government do about the rest of people who are in villages and small towns. They are secondary coaches to this bandwagon of development engine.

Let the workers who are otherwise occupied shift there base to new icon of power and development, even if they do there is plenty of others from the nation to join them. The state is creating plenty of employment opportunity for all Indians. But restricted to highly skilled and qualified sector, which even the state people are less capable of gaining from the catch. Gujarat has become global in true sense once it is sustaining on the pressure of land requirement efficiently by allocating vast salty, marshy and ravines to industrial giants. Good to see that state is efficient in land utilization, but what do we think about its agricultural base..needed a second generation reform in the sector. The state is purely missing the chance to revive the sector rather selling even this to large corporate farming or contract farming. A win industry-agriculture situation but limited to large and medium land holders. This does miss the large 70-80 percent of the cultivators who are not taken care in the agro-business model.

A huge investment in the canal projects and subsequent delayed distribution canals for fields where water was supposed to reach are now slowly diverted to setting up the industrial base. The state priority has changed and agriculture seems to bear the brunt. There is resource shortage every where if case of Gujarat is taken and has to market it self hard to sustain not only to outside investors but also to large investors in other state. A scenario would not go well with India's development agenda.

A resource which is well endowed in country lacks its presence in the small state, which inspite of having borrowed capital desires to be self sufficient in natural resources and human capital. At least this is in context of India is Unlimited but Gujarat is limited in its development scope.