Turning Golden Goose: Gujarat's next 50 years

With the thundering voice of state leaders, the Gujarat has just passed a landmark in its history, economically the giant in making the state looks forward. The huge investment promises if made to see light of day would turn Gujarat into formidable state with who's who of corporate leaders jumping the bandwagon to share the corners offered by state. Economic progress cannot be denied to state and people have right to prosper. But given the approach adopted the fallout seems to be plenty. Lets list out some of them;

(a) State turning into environmental hot spot in generating huge carbon foot print, damaging its ecosystem and coastal regions beyond repair.

(b) The assumption of climate change impacting the coastal and high populated regions needs fast mitigation measure, else the investment would cause serious business loss in next 50 years. The settlements along the coast needs to be careful about such eminent dangers.

(c) The land transfers to the corporates would cause general shift in state's occupation pattern and how much of the working population 1.9 crores can be absorbed in the secondary and tertiary sector. This is given the encouragement capital based industries and almost little horizontal linkages would leave most of work force in informal sector.

(d) The shortage of agricultural land and utilization of much needed irrigation water for the urban areas and industries might lead to water crisis given the vagaries of nature in Gujarat. The man made drought in such situation would be catastrophic to the states development.

(e) The demongraphic changes induced by large scale investment would be due to migration of technical and service staff from other parts of country, since the quality of manpower required is simply in shortfall. The labour crisis in long run might cause a serious business loss to the investors, unless the other states support the state's development. The partnership between the states like Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan etc is required to leverage each others advantage.

(f) The inequality of development efforts in backward taluka and districts would cause serious social and political concerns may be important road block to economic growth given poor Human Development Index.

(g) The continued discontent between centre and state may turnout to be long drawn fight for the state to claim its rightful share, ultimately loss of investments by FII or large investors without support of national government. Somewhere, politicians have to live above party line.

(h) The nature of political leadership might also be cause of concern for the civil rights group turning against the state on the issue of justice, communal concerns and egalitarian rights of people. This might cause embarrassment to leadership and ultimate repression by the state forces.

At the right time, the Gujarat might turn out to be 'golden goose' to be shot at before it stops filling the national exchequer. Concerns of the people and politics of the day would hardly allow the state to fly away to its destiny given the national demands of investments.